As the NBA prepares for a new season, the Rookie of the Year award conversation is heating up. Historically, the award has often gone to the most productive rookie scorer. Over the last decade, half of the winners have topped the scoring charts among rookies. This year's rookie class, however, is generating considerable skepticism.
Indeed, the 2024 draft class is being considered one of the least promising in NBA history. The top two picks are seen as projects and do not play the guard position, which could open up the field for other contenders. Notably, Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard in this year’s draft, is expected to face stiff competition in Houston’s backcourt. An inside source noted, "They badly need his shooting," underscoring the role Sheppard needs to play for his team.
On the other hand, Stephon Castle, who shot just 26.7% from three at UConn, faces the challenge of improving his efficiency to make a mark. Similarly, Ron Holland’s 23.9% three-point shooting in the G-League won't make things easier for him. This inefficiency is a trend among the new rookies, with Alex Sarr shooting a dismal 19.1% from the floor at Summer League. Interestingly, Sarr’s candidacy could be hampered by his situation, as one observer pointed out: "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," referring to the lack of support he might face in his team’s setup.
The Big Men Contingent
Historically, big men have found it tough to capture the Rookie of the Year award, with only four winners since 2003: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Victor Wembanyama. This year, Zach Edey seems relatively certain to start for the Grizzlies and is expected to model his game after Jonas Valanciunas. It's a strategy that could pay dividends if Edey can utilize his time on the court effectively.
The Struggles of High Picks
Recent rookies have shown it’s not just about where you are picked, but how you perform once you reach the NBA. The Timberwolves’ selection of Rob Dillingham as a future replacement for veteran Mike Conley may indicate a forward-thinking approach, but Dillingham will need to deliver consistently to capture the attention of the Rookie of the Year voters. In Portland, Donovan Clingan faces the dual challenge of Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III ahead of him in the rotation, making it difficult to garner substantial playing time.
Guard Play Under Scrutiny
The competition for minutes is fierce across the league. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are vying with rookie Zaccharie Risacher for forward positions on Trae Young’s squad, creating a logjam that could limit opportunities. Meanwhile, Isaiah Collier finds himself blocked by Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, both established guards. For Dalton Knecht, the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell on the Lakers means that opportunities could be limited.
Looking Back and Looking Forward
It’s worth noting that several of last season's rookies, including Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr., received votes outside of the lottery but didn't contend seriously for the top rookie honor. This underscores the unpredictable nature of the Rookie of the Year race, a competition that is influenced by numerous factors including team dynamics, individual development, and opportunity.
As the season progresses, these rookies will not only need to adjust to the rigors of the NBA but also carve out significant roles within their teams. While the 2024 draft class may lack the star power of previous years, the sheer unpredictability and diverse set of challenges facing these rookies could make this season's Rookie of the Year race one of the most intriguing in recent memory.