The Minnesota Twins experienced a heart-wrenching loss at Progressive Field, squandering a three-run lead to ultimately fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. Griffin Jax’s surrendered game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning marked the latest in a string of disappointments for the struggling Twins.
With this loss, the Twins have now lost 18 of their last 27 games. Despite holding the third AL wild-card spot, their lead has diminished to a precarious 1.5 games. Moreover, their postseason odds have plummeted significantly—from 95.4% as of September 5th, to a current 76.4% according to FanGraphs.
Offensive Struggles
The Twins' offensive woes have been a formidable obstacle. In 12 of their last 27 games, they failed to score more than three runs. Their collective batting average during this stretch stands at a mere .236, with an on-base percentage of .296 and a slugging percentage of .381. Particularly, when the bases are empty, the Twins’ batting average is .272, ranking them fourth worst in the league in this scenario.
Manager Rocco Baldelli did not mince words about the team's offensive challenges, stating, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Pitching Woes Compound the Problem
The bullpen has also been underperforming, adding to the team's burden. Initially, it maintained a respectable 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in win probability added. However, over the recent 27-game period, the bullpen's ERA ballooned to 5.47, garnering a league-worst minus-2.75 in win probability added. “It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff,” lamented Griffin Jax, reflecting the demoralized sentiment in the dugout.
The rest of the rotation hasn’t fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start over the last 27 games. Another concerning statistic is that the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. Clearly, maintaining late-game leads has been a consistent issue for the team.
Injuries and Fatigue
The grueling schedule has further strained the roster. The Twins have played 17 games in the last 18 days, and the wear is beginning to show. In this stretch of vulnerability, manager Baldelli acknowledges the struggle: "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
Amid the challenges, some hope appears on the horizon. Max Kepler is expected to make a return, which could inject some much-needed vigor into the squad. Additionally, the front office made a recent strategic move by claiming lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. "He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," noted Derek Falvey, expressing optimism about Irvin’s potential impact.
Competitive Standings
The playoffs are still within reach, but the road ahead is daunting. The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners hover just two games behind the Twins in the standings. Fortunately, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, but these margins offer little comfort given the recent performance slump. The Tigers, notably, have surged with a 23-10 record in their last 33 games, adding more pressure on the Twins.
Despite the team’s challenges, standout players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown promise, combining for a 5 for 15 performance with two doubles and a homer this month. However, individual efforts need to translate into comprehensive team success if the Twins are to maintain their postseason hopes.
Summarizing the current situation, Pablo López emphasizes the urgency: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
As the season approaches its climax, the Twins must urgently regroup and rectify their shortcomings, applying a full-team effort to turn their prospects around. The margin for error is slim, and every pitch, every at-bat holds heightened significance in this critical juncture of the season.